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Optimization of Probable Outcomes and Distribution Characteristics

Excerpt

Normally, optimization seeks to minimize or maximize a deterministic single value. However, many situations deal with probability of events, which are the result of uncertainty or environmental vagaries. The objective is to minimize some statistic related to the process, procedure, or product. The statistic could be variance of a quality metric, quantity of off-spec material that results from manufacturing variability, an undesired event probability, system reliability, economic risk, etc. These objectives could be to minimize the 95% worst outcome, maximize the 99% minimum outcome, minimize variance, etc.

Normally, optimization seeks to minimize or maximize a deterministic single value. However, many situations deal with probability of events, which are the result of uncertainty or environmental vagaries. The objective is to minimize some statistic related to the process, procedure, or product. The statistic could be variance of a quality metric, quantity of off-spec material that results from manufacturing variability, an undesired event probability, system reliability, economic risk, etc. These objectives could be to minimize the 95% worst outcome, maximize the 99% minimum outcome, minimize variance, etc.

26.1Introduction
26.2The Concept of Modeling Uncertainty
26.3Stochastic Approach
26.4Takeaway
26.5Exercises
26.1Introduction
26.2The Concept of Modeling Uncertainty
26.3Stochastic Approach
26.4Takeaway
26.5Exercises

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