Human Error Prediction in ATM via Cognitive Simulation: Preliminary Study (PSAM-0268)


The paper presents an approach for analyzing human errors for highly proceduralized tasks such those carried out by the Air Traffic Controllers. The approach is based on the use of a cognitive simulator (PROCOS) developed by Trucco et al. [6] and the Human Reliability Management approach of EUROCONTROL, which is based on the adaptation of the CAHR method to the retrospective Human Error Data collected with the incident analysis tool HERA (Human Error in ATM Technique) [4, 23]. The approach, called HERA predictive, is considered from the “information processing” perspective and allows for both the derivation of quantitative figures for human errors due to cognitive processes and due to task performance and hence covers the entire spectrum of causes for errors of commission and omission.

The PROCOS analysis using a flow chart representation is shown as an effective way to include both aspects into safety assessment. This paper mainly deals with the integration and alignment of the approaches PROCOS, HERA and CAHR.

The link of dynamic risk modeling with Human Reliability Assessment is an essential enabler for a safe European ATM. The various options of the future ATM development are compiled into the operational concept developments (CONOPS) and so far there is little possibility to assess the safety of such concepts. The link achieved by the work presented in this paper is a considerable step in order to prove and ensure that the future ATM systems are safe. A case study of the how the approach works is outlined.

  • Abstract
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Main Features of the HERA-JANUS Technique
  • 3. The Use of Cognitive Simulation for HRA Prospective Analysis: PROCOS
  • 4. Future Development and Conclusions
  • References

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